Mullaney Keating & Wright

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GREAT MODERATION REDUX ?

Gavyn Davies has called attention to the belief of some analysts that we may be entering another period of less than historical fluctuations in GDP growth and less than average inflation in his blog Great Moderation 2.0-Davies.  Although not necessarily great news for the economy, the Great Moderation #1 was pretty good for the stock market and Davies implies that a Great Moderation 2.0 might have a similar effect on equity returns. Given the slower than desired economic recovery, albeit better than after most financial crises, this topic is likely to get more attention from economists and investment strategists in coming months.

TFM