Mullaney Keating & Wright

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FORECASTING IS DIFFICULT

especially about the future.  This may or may not be a Chinese proverb but it is more of a truism than most of us know.  Jim Surowiecki of The New Yorker had a interesting take on Punditonomics earlier in April.  He notes that fortune (but not accuracy) favors the bold in the punditocracy game. Similaly, Praksh Loungani reviews economic forecasters’ track records and finds them wanting. Although a bit wonkish his Predicting Turning Points article is worth the effort for the Oscar Wilde paraphrase alone.  Finally, Jim Parker of DFA points out in Connecting The Dots that it is not even possible to consistently and accurately explain what just happened in the markets.  There is a lesson in all this for investors and Parker pretty well spells it out.

TFM