Mullaney Keating & Wright

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FED WATCHING

Reading the entrails of the often Delphic pronouncements of Federal Reserve chairmen is an high art.  Tim Duy is the current master Fed watcher and in his Thoughts on Yellen’s Speech – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch he observes that the first female chair of the Federal Reserve Board is a model of clarity compared to her predecessors.  He also interprets her recent speech to foretell caution in pulling the first rate hike trigger and, more important, a shallower path to the new normal equilibrium fed funds rate.  That is certainly what people think who bet with their own money which is why long term US Treasury rates are so low five years after the bottom.  Still, Harry Truman would have preferred that Ms. Yellen was one-armed.

TFM